For the last several weeks I’ve slowly been forming a few theories in my mind about Dale Earnhardt Jr. This is not related to his performance at Watkins Glen, because I don’t think anyone considers him a road racer. This is about the performance of the team since Lance McGrew took over Crew Chief duties. And I’d love to hear your opinions on this as well.

First, let me set the stage. Like anyone, I’ve been curious to see how the 88 team would respond to having McGrew on top of the box. The fact that the announcers will tell you how the 88 is doing three times as much as any other driver doesn’t hurt either. What I’ve seen, and let me know if you think otherwise, is a marked increase in performance that is not reflected in the finishes. It seems to be a repeating pattern that the car qualifies average, falls back, works itself into the top 10 and then over the last 30 laps falls back. Precipitously falls back. From 10th-ish to 29th-ish. All of a sudden. And it happens Every Single Race. I’d almost bet my paycheck that it will happen again this weekend. So here’s the rub. I think that McGrew is doing a fantastic job. He takes the information given to him and continues making the car better throughout the race. Then the car mysteriously, and repeatedly, falls apart. I just have trouble believing this. I think there is something going on with Junior. This isn’t the car, it’s the driver.

Now I’m not one of those that believes that Dale Jr. is overrated, well okay maybe a little. But some people would call 18 wins a career. The Harvicks, Newmans, Burtons and Biffles – no one is calling them overrated. I think Jr. can drive a car. The question is does he want to. I think for whatever reason, something in his head won’t let him finish well. It could be that the pressure to finish well gets to him and he starts driving sloppy. It could be that he doesn’t want people to see Lance McGrew showing up his cousin Tony Eury Jr. But I think that the main problem here is definitely mental.

My other theory is that Junior simply can’t figure out the COT. He was raised on the old car. He drove the Busch series version to two championships and the Cup version to 16 wins. He literally grew up with that car. But since the changeover? Two wins and a decidedly massive drop in overall performance. The change occurred shortly after the Tony Sr. to Tony Jr. switch and a Steve Hmiel layover, so Tony Jr. may not have been the real problem. Some drivers have adapted much better than others. Junior is not one of those. I think Jeff Gordon is another who has not adapted well. I don’t believe Harvick has either. It happens, and it may have happened with Dale Jr.

But I’m going to stick with my first theory. Something is rattlin’ around in that boy’s head. He needs a sports therapist or something. It’s not the equipment, and it’s not the crew chief. It’s all Dale Earnhardt Jr. And only Dale Earnhardt Jr. can fix it. And whether or not he does speaks to how bad he wants to succeed.